Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.052821 0.060470 0.068903 0.078901 0.090446 0.103376 0.118979
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.041278 0.051703 0.064331 0.080803 0.101802 0.127776 0.162503
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.033993 0.045239 0.059755 0.079968 0.107551 0.144112 0.196638
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.030243 0.042290 0.058671 0.082742 0.117501 0.166310 0.240813
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.025739 0.037503 0.054210 0.079892 0.118788 0.176145 0.268343
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.022604 0.034161 0.051219 0.078524 0.121688 0.188214 0.300294
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.019628 0.030638 0.047459 0.075369 0.121215 0.194740 0.323986
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.018498 0.029800 0.047652 0.078340 0.130687 0.218000 0.378092
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.017497 0.029026 0.047816 0.081201 0.140208 0.242341 0.437248
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.016602 0.028311 0.047962 0.083984 0.149828 0.267881 0.501941
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.015256 0.026671 0.046346 0.083448 0.153375 0.282854 0.548729
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.014243 0.025503 0.045414 0.084004 0.158928 0.302074 0.606254
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.013172 0.024150 0.044061 0.083715 0.163016 0.319342 0.663141
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.012540 0.023549 0.044033 0.085972 0.172410 0.348344 0.749156
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.011584 0.022230 0.042506 0.085076 0.175261 0.364278 0.809083
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.011167 0.021911 0.042872 0.088038 0.186490 0.399214 0.917028
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.010146 0.020290 0.040490 0.084995 0.184410 0.404921 0.957617
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.009390 0.019133 0.038934 0.083535 0.185619 0.418054 1.017941
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.008528 0.017678 0.036622 0.080166 0.182092 0.419835 1.050269
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.008324 0.017598 0.037207 0.083337 0.194127 0.459812 1.186695
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.008118 0.017490 0.037719 0.086393 0.206255 0.501597 1.334762
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.007913 0.017364 0.038176 0.089364 0.218540 0.545394 1.495657
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.007458 0.016635 0.037203 0.088792 0.221849 0.566614 1.596401